Where Apple to Fall

Again Tim Cook plans to visit Beijing later this month. Except ‘again’, the entire sentence is quote from Reuters. Why I added ‘again’？Because who is exactly almost about to swear away the threshold of China these couple of years.

Tim Cook, current chief executive officer from Apple Inc. The honest action is the first impression who gave me, against the impression Apple’s products gave me, I like Tim more. Hooking on the shade of melancholy which settled in his eyes, and the march which should belong to a devil, haha~

I don’t remember when was the first time I hear iPhone, but surely it was already referred as a premium product in China, look back at late years, both in network and real life, everyone was just talking about it, it felt like if you don’t have one, then you were alienated from society, just like Tom Hanks in Cast Away. I still remember those people who took a whole night to wait in line in order to buy it, and those warriors who fought each other only for a position in the line. I have to confess it was an inspiriting age of heroes Apple created, those people who had been mad of an iPhone were noteless but brilliant and bright.

While some people who coming from Baidu Tieba even calling it The Halidom to Pretend to be Powerful. There was a time when I was an green boy, so I was pissing on it, thought it’s only a common thing wrapped by a certain gaudy measure, thought those who go to buy it with a high price were fools, 24K fine fools.

Although the once green boy is close to be grey now, but the thought hasn’t change basically. Alas, old man that is, the thought is difficult to be changed by time. But still there are some tiny differences against before:

1. Jobs is exactly a conscientious founder, who put in much blood to made information technology into information art, surely he has right to sell his works of good prices.

2. Iphone has its own merits compares to others, but also with faults.

When Apple released iPhone 6 and iPhone6 plus to get into the age of large screen, the slogan “bigger than bigger”even coursed a discuss at Chinese network. People talked too much, good or bad. But the truth followed which made sense of some jokes from people: The new products didn’t bring us more new revolutionary applications. So the slogan was really mean it’s big only？bigger than that biggest one from Samsung？Or what is the point？But the biggest mobile from Samsung is Note 8, it’s obviously Apple doesn’t have one so big. If it truly means to jostle, when the Apple would directly make pad to be a mobile exactly?

In fact the Apple was beginning to fall since then. But main reason gets it fall off is not that if it get into the age of large screen or not, time is coming！the material——reserve of technologies is already exhausted. Go to check patents from Apple in recent years, what the fuck is what I have but one thing to say. Obviously its technology research and development department is swindling out of expenditure with many slick ideas.

Surely the Apple is anxiously looking for a new way, how would it do? Create a new technological revolution? As I said, reserve of technologies is already exhausted.

 The basic reason is unobvious, now what obvious is the setbacks Apple facing in its most important overseas market——China.

The weakening smartphone sales、the loss of an Iphone trademark dispute (Probably the Apple Inc would really plan to sell purses indeed), and suspension of some online entertainment services ( Following Beijing's introduction of Provisions on the Administration of Online Publishing Services, Apple's Online Book and Film Services were shut in China at April), that had Apple lost a potential income source as well.

Speaking of Provisions on the Administration of Online Publishing Services, some media said it is particularly about foreign firms, their reports almost as following:

    Under President Xi Jinping, China is also trying to shift away from its dependence on foreign technology, especially in critical sectors like banking and insurance, strict curbs have already shut many foreign firms’ online services, the firms have staunchly opposed new regulations that they say threaten to cut them out of such industries, even the governments behind them have also made murmurs at this.

Indeed I want to say that Chinese government is willing to see a busy network except certain foreign firms and public intellectuals ballyhooing that individualistic heroism, to against power might, democracy and liberty theory etc on it. Liberty is not lawlessness, man. And what is power might? Which means leader have the final say. I think even at so called freest US can’t be so free that common people have the final say and Obama is nothing.

Come back to Apple. The very problems above set Cook’s this visit to Beijing. Of course the bargaining will be pretty important however. And there was a source said during his china visit Cook plans to meet senior governments and officials in charge of propaganda. But who declined to be named as the plan is not public yet.

Recently billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn had sold his entire stake in Apple, cited China's economic slowdown and worries about whether the government could make it very difficult for Apple to conduct business.

Is it true? The saying is really from his heart? I don’t think so. At least that was not entire reason. Don’t forget, Buffett has just bought a mass of stake in Apple. Who is prudent to do things have known is dangerous.

So exactly what attitude Icahn is holding?  First let’s check who he is.

Carl Celian Icahn is an American business magnate, professional investor, activist shareholder, vulture capitalist, The Leader of Wolves in Wall Street… focus on the tag of activist shareholder, what is it？which means that once he was holding a company’s stakes, then he will actively impact the idea from the leaders of the company. And since he moves for profits as an investor, so in generally who won’t consider the company’s far-reaching designs but the short-term interest, and the shorter investment cycle the better, the more return the better. Sometimes he even makes bad impact to the company for the goal, that’s always bad to long-term health of the company. For men like Icahn, the objects they’ve invested are not like domestic animal need cares in order to get long standing earnings. The objects are only wild animals, they brought them to heel and take away a huge profit, and there are many others waiting somewhere else. They don’t care the last object they’d invested is living or dying.

I remember there’s a movie called Pretty Woman, the hero in it who just lives on such sort of business.

So why Icahn passed up Apple？It’s a tech company, owns much surplus cash flow and uncommon market value. Isn’t it a good investment？It won’t be a depreciating asset even you break it up to sell after it broke! Maybe it is a hard nut to crack for common people, but Icahn is not common people, he has money enough to do it, why he didn’t crack it and snap away the nutlet as he has always did？

Firstly as I said, Apple’s high development won’t appear again (gentlemen, may I have your attention, I do mean won’t, not maybe), Icahn know it. And secondly the point is: if Apple can refuse US government and China government the two huge wolves in this universe, and then it owns brave enough to refuse Icahn.

Iphone has refused to give source code to the wolves that made it won some public opinion but no big help to its sales. We always say not to advance is to go back, the same is true at Apple. If it can’t keep its high growth to show investor the huge benefit, they even more like to leave behind the big bone to find another fresh meat, as soon as possible.

Now except lacking of investors and slipping of sales, Apple also facing certain marketing restrictions, especially in china. It just like a tiny firm get into two shopping centers in same time, and the two shopping centers are opponents.

US government helped companies like Apple a lot indeed, suppress Huawei and ZTE under the pretence of communication security. That gave Apple a good circumstance in North America. Of course China is doing similar thing to Apple.

The key to open the curbs is hand over the source code. Give it to US that could get more expediency. To China, that could be considered as a kindness, an attitude to make friends. And then the China government will pay back the kindness. Hand both out or neither the two ways no advance. Hand over to one, it will be torn by another one. China or US, who the small business would bet to maximize its benefit? Honestly that’s a problem without solution. But for now, it seems that Apple doesn’t plan to compromise to any side.

Of course Cook is a master of selling, but there is a motto: only the fine hammer can forge the fine iron. I can bet that Cook cannot save Apple in the end. Because when its products are not attracted enough, the best manner of selling to heaven is zero.

What I said above isn’t mean that Cook is not as good as Jobs. We all know Jobs was a master of art, he had always stress on art. But whose achievement was not mainly from artistic pursuit but the high-speed development of the information technology in last several years, mainly from the advance of the semiconductor engineering and quantum mechanics several tens of years ago. Most of people overlooked the point.

    Look back with the last several tens of years, did we get a new technological revolution？Except information technology but since Apollo’s trip to the moon in 1969, our technology have had no a revolutionary change. In other words: now there is no essential difference between our carriage and several tens of years’, our power system is far from age of steamer. 

Some would say: well Thousandsmile, you are bullshitting, we have seen the huge change these years in China, it never shown the sign to stop.

I will say it is stopping in China also. Recently decades of technological development in China based on 200-300 years of technological accumulation of the west, now the west had already stopped for decade years, except learning, China did nothing during this period. Some innovations are far from technological revolution.

This explained why our economy is so hard now, why people realizing the money is more and more difficult to earn. Because no new technology, no new high return of project offer up to those capitalists. Capitalists have own mass of money but can’t find a new project or area to invest for the needs of profit-making.

For example: A worker worked out a product and sold for 10. The worker and the boss get 10 from the market. Worker get 2 and boss get 8. There are 3 as the cost of production in the 8 the boss got will slipped back into the market, worker’s 2 will do so. But the boss considering the cash flow and money to invest else projects which would make more money, so he won’t spend all of 5 he got indeed. Which means worker’s max consuming ability is 2, the boss’ will be less than 5. Let’s imagine it is 4, and then a primary math problem is coming: 4 + 3 + 2 – 10 = -1. They got 10 from the market, but at most there are 9 slipped back. That’s why we are feeling money is more and more difficult to earn, since market’s money becoming less and less.

Some would say the governments could print more money to replenish the funding pool of market, the quantitative easing we always heard. Who owns the thinking is dumber than the cat which stealing cream with shut eyes. Can’t the boss raise the price of product? Who has to make money anyway.

    Under such situation of economy deteriorating, if the next technological revolution wouldn’t have shown up in good time, I can’t imagine what our economy will to be. Quote a sentence from Chinese government：that will be a sort of the new normal. And it will be freakish. A dozen of Jobs can’t save Apple Inc under thus situation.

    Economy crisis have always like a catalyst to technological revolution. So wherever Apple to fall, I hope it just like the apple which dropped at Newton’s head to got a new technological revolution to the world, that’s what our dangerous world is needing.